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The US coffee industry, already reeling from climate-related price hikes, is bracing for another significant blow as new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration threaten to increase the cost of coffee imports. This development not only affects the nation's coffee roasters and importers but also leaves consumers facing higher prices at their favorite coffee shops and supermarkets. As the industry adapts to these changes, there is growing concern about the impact on both local businesses and international trade relations.
The US is the largest consumer and importer of coffee globally, with about 99% of its coffee beans sourced from abroad, primarily from countries like Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia[1][2]. Over the past few years, unfavorable growing conditions in these regions have led to supply shortages and rising costs. The retail price of ground coffee has skyrocketed, hitting an all-time high of $7.38 per pound in March 2025, marking an 84% increase from January 2020[1].
As of April 5, 2025, a baseline tariff of 10% has been levied on coffee imports from all countries. However, some major coffee-producing nations face even higher rates. For instance, Vietnam, the largest robusta coffee producer, is subject to a 46% tariff, while Indonesia faces a 32% levy[2][5]. These increased tariffs could significantly inflate costs for US coffee businesses and, ultimately, for consumers.
The imposition of these tariffs is prompting a mixed reaction from the industry. Some businesses are considering adjusting their sourcing strategies or passing on costs to customers. Peter Moses, co-founder of Mighty Oak Roasters, noted that higher tariffs might compel him to remove popular coffee blends from the menu due to cost constraints[1].
Meanwhile, Cafe Grumpy in Brooklyn is holding off on price increases for now but anticipates having to raise them soon due to both market and climate-related costs[1]. Caroline Bell, co-founder of Cafe Grumpy, expects prices to rise by about 10% across the board if the tariffs continue[1].
The coffee industry is a significant contributor to the US economy, generating substantial value from imports and supporting millions of jobs[4]. However, the current tariffs, part of broader "reciprocal tariff" policies aimed at addressing trade deficits, are likely to exacerbate price volatility and stress the supply chain[4].
Yannis Apostolopoulos, CEO of the Specialty Coffee Association, highlighted that these tariffs will prolong existing price volatility, affecting both producers and consumers[2]. The National Coffee Association has called for coffee to be exempt from new tariffs, citing its critical role in American daily life and the economy[2].
Global coffee brands like illycaffé and Lavazza are evaluating strategies to mitigate the impact of these tariffs. illycaffé is considering increasing direct production in the US to reduce reliance on imports, while Lavazza is focused on maintaining growth in the US market despite potential price hikes[5].
As the US coffee industry navigates these challenging new tariffs, consumers are bracing for what could be a double hit—higher prices and potentially fewer options. Whether these tariffs lead to lasting changes in global coffee trade or merely add to current economic uncertainty remains to be seen. However, one thing is clear: US coffee lovers will likely face a more bitter brew in the months ahead, not just in taste but also in cost.
In this context, advocating for exemptions or adjustments to these tariffs might be crucial to preserve the vibrancy and diversity of the coffee industry, both domestically and globally. As tensions rise and negotiations continue, the world watches with bated breath to see how these policies will shape the future of coffee consumption worldwide.
